In less than two months, the American people will vote in one of the most contentious elections in U.S. history. According to both national and statewide polls, there is likely to  be a new President of the United States. A poll conducted by The Economist has former Vice President Joe Biden with a commanding nine point lead over President Donald Trump. This is not a unique result as most polls have Biden beating President Trump somewhere between two and 11 points. These statistics, however, could create a false reality for the Democratic nominee and his campaign. The statewide polls create a more accurate prediction of election day.

Just as in 2016, President Trump has a narrow path to victory through the electoral college. He has to carry historically Democratic states while snagging nearly all of the swing states. The 2020 election will be decided by almost the same states that made Trump the president in 2016. These state polls show that Biden is leading Trump, but the margin between them is decreasing. The former Vice President still has a healthy lead in Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida and North Carolina. However, as the first debate gets closer, and the stock market continues to skyrocket, President Trump is closing the deficit at a steady pace.

In campaign news, President Trump is under attack for the comments he made about U.S. troops. The Atlantic cites several anonymous senior staff members that have heard the President call living and dead U.S. soldiers “losers” and “suckers” on multiple occasions. This is not the first time that President Trump has had documented comments against those in the military. In 2015, he said the following about Senator John McCain, who was a prisoner of war for five years during the Vietnam War: “He’s not a war hero… I like people who weren’t captured.” Trump later apologized for his comments toward McCain but claims that this most recent accusation is nothing more than a “Fake Story.” 

During his latest campaign event, Vice President Biden once again fielded questions about his age in Pennsylvania this week. The Trump campaign has launched countless ads and other propaganda claiming that Biden is unfit for the job due to his age. Biden, who will be 78 on inauguration day, would be the oldest person to become President. Members of the Trump team have toyed with the idea that Biden’s mental capability is rapidly slipping. They reference his numerous speaking gaffes, but the former Vice President has a speech impediment that could have caused the gaffes. On ABC 27 News in Pennsylvania, Biden said the following, “I realize anything can happen to anybody at any age, any time. But I promise you I would not be running unless I was in very good health.”

COVID-19 and public health have become a key issue in the 2020 race. As COVID-19 still runs rampant in the U.S., the American people are looking towards the Oval Office for leadership. The Trump Administration has repeatedly touted what they deem was a successful response. 

“My administration will stop at nothing to save lives and shield the vulnerable,” said President Trump. According to the White House, the President and his team built the largest testing system in the world, created a way for both the private and public sector to create and secure needed supplies and spearheaded the initiative to get a vaccine out as soon as possible. 

Meanwhile, Biden released a comprehensive plan for his response to the pandemic last week. He plans on creating a system that allows every American to have access to American manufactured personal protective equipment (PPE). He will institute a restart program for any small business that went or will go bankrupt due to the economy closing. Both candidates have been critical towards each other’s response (or proposed response) since March.

The next major event for both candidates will be the first Presidential Debate – held Tuesday, Sept. 29, which will be nationally broadcasted and free to stream. 

Florida Republican gubernatorial candidate Ron DeSantis and Florida Gov. Rick Scott.

The competitive election races in Florida have finally been called. Republican Ron DeSantis will be the next governor of Florida, and outgoing Republican Governor Rick Scott will replace incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson in the U.S. Senate.

These results follow a tumultuous series of events beginning election day Nov. 6. On election night, both DeSantis and Scott declared their respective victories by narrow margins and, initially, DeSantis’ opponent, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum, gave a concession speech.

However, as more votes were counted, the margins narrowed further and many ballots remained to be counted in the historically Democratic counties of Palm Beach and Broward, Gillum revoked his concession and joined Senator Nelson in calling for all votes to be counted before making any determination.

Following election night with votes still streaming in and both races looking as though they would go to recounts – as dictated by Florida law, lawyers from both parties flooded to the state. In this tense environment, Governor Scott, Sen Marco Rubio (R-FL) and President Trump, alongside other prominent Republicans, all accused Democrats of orchestrating voter fraud.

These allegations, made without any evidence being put forward, remain unsubstantiated and seem to stem from the fact that Broward and Palm Beach counties, which are typically Democratic strongholds, lagged behind the rest of the state in providing results. Palm Beach and Broward are the second and third largest counties in the state and did have their results in by the time results were officially required to be in.

While accusations of voter fraud are false, it is true there were irregularities in the Florida election. In Broward County, the election supervisor, Brenda Snipes, admitted to errors including allowing a small number of ballots determined uncountable to be mixed with valid ballots. In the Republican stronghold of Bay County, a small number of ballots were accepted by email despite state law prohibiting it and a number of votes were not counted because they were lost at a mailing facility.

The ballot design used in Broward County compounded such irregularities. Due to the way the county designed their ballot, the U.S. Senate race was in a place underneath a set of instructions that appears easily overlooked. Indeed, the number of voters who seemed not to have marked the senate race, but voted a straight Democratic ticket otherwise is within the margin Senator Nelson needed to prevail in this narrow race.

The intensely competitive environment of Florida elections explains why even small irregularities in Florida become national news. All states face voting problems – Florida’s voting problems are not significantly more egregious than any in other states, but it does receive heightened scrutiny in every election.

Florida elections often come down to one point of the electorate or less and the likely voter base is so evenly balanced that even small issues and irregularities have the potential to swing elections – leading to increased national attention. Similar problems in Democrat and Republican strongholds likes California and Utah, respectively, are far less likely to have an impact and receive less attention.

What is clear from the 2018 midterms, is that Florida – a state long known for its razor thin margins and contentious elections, most infamously in the presidential election of 2000 – has maintained its status as the perennial swing state.

Photo courtesy of John Raoux and Alan Diaz / AP.