France is entering one of the most turbulent phases of its Fifth Republic. President Emmanuel Macron’s second term, beginning in 2022, has been marked by legislative gridlock, spiraling debt and a deep constitutional crisis. In June of 2024, Macron dissolved the National Assembly triggering early elections that left parliament fragmented and nearly ungovernable. Under the French Constitution, the president may dissolve the National Assembly and call new elections. This power is rarely exercised, as effective governance typically requires a stable majority in the Assembly. In 2024, however, Macron’s lack of parliamentary support provided the rationale for dissolution, as he hoped to secure a broader coalition. Instead, the resulting legislative elections plunged France into deeper political turmoil. In less than 15 months, three prime ministers have succeeded one another at the Hôtel de Matignon (The prime minister’s official office) each tasked with maintaining the cohesion of a Macronist project that has long lost its popular and parliamentary success. In such a context, what does France’s immediate political future look like?
Sébastien Lecornu: Chaos as a Political Strategy
A few weeks ago, ex-Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted from the government after losing a confidence vote. Bayrou called for this confidence vote as a last-ditch act of desperation. Indeed, his budget proposal was deeply unpopular, and Bayrou feared being ousted through a vote of no confidence initiated by the deputies themselves. He chose instead to take the initiative and directly test the Assembly’s support for his proposal. Lacking a majority and with no clear plans to form a coalition, this move proved politically suicidal, and few understood how he expected to benefit from it. Unsurprisingly, Bayrou lost the vote of confidence.
However, it took Macron only one day to appoint his new protégé: Sébastien Lecornu. Macron’s new prime minister, described by the French journal Le Nouvel Obs as “ Macron’s favorite” has become Macron’s longest-serving high-level ally, weathering all the government changes since Macron’s first term in 2017. He is a product of Macron’s center right liberal style of governance, and he will most certainly continue to support Macron’s pro-market “supply-side economics.” Lecornu is tasked with protecting the president’s liberal economic reforms—cutting capital taxes, easing labor regulations, and prioritizing competitiveness—while managing an increasingly hostile and fractured parliament.
His appointment highlights the growing divide between the French left and Macron’s market-driven economic agenda. The PS (Socialist Party) , emboldened by its recent electoral successes, advocates for higher taxes on wealth and corporations in order to fund public services and combat income inequality. Lecornu, on the other hand, is expected to protect the status quo and defend the interests of industrial groups. His critics argue that his rhetoric skews heavily to the right and raises concerns about his ability to find compromise on social issues.
Lecornu faces an unenviable balancing act. He must defend Macron’s pro-market reforms, reassure investors worried about France’s rising debt and negotiate with opposition parties on both political extremes to pass even basic legislation. Some analysts expect him to double down on constitutional shortcuts while others predict that he will attempt limited compromises with the left on social protection and public services issues in order to stabilize his government. In any case, the impression that Macron is governing in chaos will likely persist.
A polarized National Assembly
The French National Assembly has not been so divided in decades. As previously noted, Macron’s center-right no longer holds a legislative majority, and the assembly is now divided between a fragmented left that struggles to find compromises with a weakened Macronist bloc, and a rising far right that seems to gain public legitimacy in the face of this political crisis. Legislative gridlock has become commonplace, with budget bills and key reforms regularly blocked or watered down. Instead of forming cross-party coalitions, Macron and his former prime ministers are increasingly resorting to constitutional tools such as Article 49.3, which allows the executive to pass bills without parliamentary consent, reinforcing accusations of abuse of power by the executive.
Who is to blame?
Responsibility for the political crisis in France is the subject of widespread debate. Critics, such as former Prime Minister in the mid 2000s Dominique de Villepin, argue that the problem lies less with the institutions than with Macron’s style of governance. According to them, the president has shifted from the role of impartial arbiter to that of a hyper-presidential “monarch,” centralizing decision-making and sidelining Parliament. This approach, they say, has eroded public trust and strengthened the extremes.
Public opinion
French citizens themselves are divided over the nation’s political future. Polls show widespread frustration with the high cost of living, pension reform, and what many see as the government’s arrogance. In addition, a recent poll by the Odoxa institute showed that 69% of French people believe Sébastien Lecornu is not fit to govern France. The polarization within Parliament is also reflected in public opinion: while left-wing voters are calling for higher taxes on the rich and increased social investment, right-wing voters favor immigration controls and measures to maintain public order.
Conclusion: A Republic in shambles?
The lack of a unifying agenda has created fertile ground for the far right, particularly the National Rally, which has positioned itself as the authentic voice of disillusioned voters and could well become the leading political force in France in the coming years. As Macron’s second term enters its final stretch, the central question remains: Will Sébastien Lecornu succeed in transforming chaos into consensus, or will his term mark the definitive failure of the centrist experiment in France?